50 Day Prediction

There are 50 days left until the November presidential election and I'm not really sure if there is going to be much of a contest in Oklahoma.  McCain has had a substantial lead in all of the limited number of polls conducted in Oklahoma as far back as 2007.  In the most recent polls he leads Obama by over 30%.

So if the polls are accurate and the election were held today, Senator John McCain would take Oklahoma's 7 electoral votes.

Important Issues

In a small recent poll conducted in Oklahoma, researchers found that the majority of Oklahomans believe the economy to be the most pressing issue in the upcoming election, followed by war in Iraq as a close second.

In Oklahoma the majority of people hold jobs in the professional or manufacturing sector of the workforce, therefore other important issues to Oklahomans could be taxes and agriculture. According to the Oklahoma Prosperity Project, the election of pro-business Republicans or Democrats is vital to the economy.  They list as their number one issue the promotion of affordable healthcare for employees and their families.  They also talk of the necessity of lowering the costs of conducting business, keeping American competitive in the global economic arena, and creating a favorable tax climate.

So for Oklahoma in 2008 the election looks as if it will be focused on the economy; especially those aspects that relate to business, and the war in Iraq.

Demographic Geography and Important Facts

Here's a quick rundown of some important demographic information as well as past election results and factors that are potentially influential for the upcoming election.

Registered Voters: Democratic: 1,045,490 (50.4%); Republican: 805,607 (38.8%); Other: 224,464 (10.8%)

Estimated Population (as of 2006): 3,579,212

Oklahoma is historically a red state which has consistently voted Republican since the 1950's.  It is rarely a visit on important campaign stops although the state has a Democrat for a governor and a much larger number of registered members of the Democratic party than the Republican.  In both 2004 and 2000 the voters of Oklahoma overwhelmingly supported the Republican candidate for president George Bush and in both the 1996 and 1992 presidential vote the citizens of Oklahoma supported Bob Dole and George Bush Sr. respectively.  It is unlikely that the historical tradition in Oklahoma of voting Republican will be undergoing any changes in the near future.

Primary Results

Here are the official results of the primary held in the state in February, indicating to some degree the state's political leanings and their candidate preferences.

Democrats:

38 pledged delegates, 9 unpledged

Candidate Vote %

Hillary Rodham Clinton 228,480 54.8

Barack Obama 130,130 31.2

John Edwards 42,725 10.2

Bill Richardson 7,078 1.7

Republicans:

38 pledged delegates, 3 unpledged

Candidate: Vote %

John McCain 122,772 36.6

Mike Huckabee 111,899 33.4

Mitt Romney 83,030 24.8

Ron Paul 11,183 3.3

Which way did the primaries go?

Oklahoma's primaries are held fairly early on in the primary season.  This year in the primaries Clinton defeated Obama by a fairly sizable margin which was expected.  She, in fact, took every county expect for Oklahoma county where Obama won by a very small margin.  On the Republican side of things McCain took the state by a fairly small margin as Huckabee presented him with quite a few challenges as he was the governor of the neighboring state of Arkansas.